Pakistan’s consumer price index (CPI) is expected to increase by 6.5 percent to 7 percent, from 7 percent, 3.0 percent in August 2025 and 6.93 percent in September 2024. On the basis of more than a month (mother), inflation is likely to increase by 3.1 %.
According to Topline Securities, this year’s year (YOY) inflation study and the highest mother in 26 months will increase.
The report states that the cause of the rise in food inflation is attributed to the effects of the floods, which have disrupted food supply chains.
The increase in the expected mother of 8.75 % in food segments is the most recorded increase in this category. The key contributions to this spike are rising prices of car tomatoes (+122 %), wheat (+49 %), dough (+39 %), and onions (+35 %). Meanwhile, potatoes, rice, poultry, eggs, and sugar have seen a high increase in prices.
Housing, water, electricity and gas are expected to face a slight reduction of 0.24 % of the mother. The reduction of electricity compensation due to a 2.19 % reduction in electricity compensation is one of the factors that play a vital role in this fall. The reduction in electricity prices is partially offered at a cost of liquid petroleum gas (LPG) by 2.75 %.
The transport sector is also facing a decline, which has reduced car fuel prices by 2.7 %. In particular, petrol prices are stable, while high -speed diesel (HSD) has fallen to 5.3 %.
For September 2025, analysts expect inflation to be between 6.5 % and 7.0 %, with real rates rising to 400-450bps, which surpasses Pakistan’s specific rate of 200-300bps. The key threats to inflation points also include fluctuating global commodity prices, which can change inflation in the coming months.